BioArchos Premise

TL;DR The current carbon capture and utilization/sequestration (CCU/S) landscape is made up of marketable solutions that do not deliver on the palpable potential behind sequestration, namely geological storage and synthetic fuel production. The problems with these attempts at commercializing CCU/S is their lack of fundamental behavior change. It seems that CCU/S can become a sustainably integrated part of urban living, if made into a visible, desirable identity symbol with undeniable efficiency gains. The BioArchos project is founded on this premise, driven by the excitement of the potential to close resource loops into systems that resemble ecology.

Existing Circumstances.

New York City has an average reading of 600ppm of CO2 in its atmosphere, roughly 50% above the global average of 415ppm. (Shuttterstock).

Carbon Capture & Utilization/Sequestration.
Typically, when one hears the term “carbon capture & utilization/sequestration”, the act of capturing CO2 out of the air and preventing the carbon from escaping once captured, they will think of global climate change and sustainability. This is, after all, the most important, urgent, and existential issue that the current generations of humanity face. However, a little probing will reveal that there are a number of additional needs for CCU/S and managing carbon as a resource. These issues include cognitive performance (brain fog in a stuffy room), building operation costs (ventilation demand), tenant appeal (air quality concerns), urban food supply, urban farm efficiency, and urban soil revitalization. A valid retort to this observation would be: what is the point of looking for other needs when there’s already such a valid and just one - preventing climate change? And to that I say: let’s peer into the potential business models behind carbon sequestration.

A rendering of Carbon Engineering’s planned Direct Air Capture facility. (Carbon Engineering).

The CCU/S Landscape.
The CCU/S landscape is currently made up of a very small group of start-up type companies that are focused on industry-scaled solutions, with business models that reduce sequestration’s ecological potency. These companies are being built around novel technologies that make it possible to suck the carbon out of the air, referred to as “Direct Air Capture” (DAC). While we are finally seeing some industry development that has the potential to proactively reduce our species’ global carbon footprint, the primary players in this budding industry – Climeworks and Carbon Engineering – have their business models based on geological storage and synthetic fuel production.

Geological storage comes in two forms: standalone geological storage, and enhanced oil recovery. Standalone geological storage essentially turns captured CO2 into minerals, which are kept in large underground deposits. Enhanced oil recovery uses CO2 as a “back pressure” gas in oil extraction, making more efficient use of found oil reserves, while (conceptually) trapping the CO2 underground. Meanwhile, synthetic fuel production is a process that pulls the carbon from CO2, and places it into a hydrocarbon chain (the basic molecular construction of all fuels). Some synthetic fuels have been developed to be usable in existing engines, making them an appealing transitional energy medium.

Which would you show off to your friends? (Tesla, Climeworks).

Problems with the CCU/S Landscape.
The issue with these attempts at commercializing CCU/S is their lack of fundamental behavior change. Products and services that change the world provide some undeniable efficiency gain and tap into a narrative that a critical mass of people want to be a part of. Take Tesla or Apple as prime examples of this. Both successfully took what was perceived to be a niche market into some of the most sought-after products available today. In the process, they have transformed our ways of living, our daily habits, and desires. CCU/S clearly has this potential, but the proposed business models above fall short.

Synthetic fuels derived from captured CO2 enable only a carbon-neutral cycle, at best; assuming that the production and transport of these products do not create carbon emissions. Enhanced oil recovery is an even more disappointing, as it is more of an attempt to trim around the edges than proposing a transformative revolution. Standalone geological storage keeps most true to the promise of CCU/S, but the service stemming from this activity is lackluster. The idea has been to sell units of captured carbon (similar to the idea of “carbon credits”) to companies and individuals wishing to have a zero carbon footprint. There are enough entities today with zero or reduced carbon footprint goals that it is a decent enough plan to work for now, but this is once again missing that transformative quality we want to see.

Tesla, Apple, and other market-defining powerhouses achieved their seemingly Herculean objectives with the deadly combination of delivering economic advantage and a strong visible identity/narrative. Purchasing carbon credits is a nice-to-have, but delivers no clear efficiency advantage. No one will notice your use of synthetic or enhanced oil recovery-based fuels, at least not without you advertising about it. Driving a Tesla, using an iPhone, adjusting your home’s Nest, or carrying a Whole Foods canvas tote; none of these examples demand further elaboration. People take note. You have established your identity immediately. This, then, begs the question: what product or service using CCU/S will make it an economic and identity impossibility to turn back once used?

Exploring the other CCU/S Markets.

The ingredients of potential solutions likely already exist in the world. A combination of the sleek package and function of Molekule, the easy-to-use and data-driven efficiency gains of Nest, with the CCU/S potential behind biological processes may be one path the explore. (Molekule, Nest, Makoto Eyre).

I find the alternative needs for CCU/S to be an excellent opportunity to address this question. Couple the sustainability advantage with some real need in the world, and there is an opportunity for vastly improving the world (while making plenty of money from it).

A comprehensive filter (particulates, microorganisms, VOCs, CO2, CO) may help reduce the required rates of outdoor air exchanges in buildings with central HVAC. This can reduce energy expenditure on HVAC by 20-30%. (Makoto Eyre).

Cost of Ventilation.
The general purpose of ventilation is to remove the indoor contaminants that build up through use, through exchanging air with the outdoors. This process takes up a great deal of energy, however, especially as the air brought in from the outdoors needs to be conditioned (temperature and humidity control) for comfort. The average percentage of commercial building annual energy consumption driven by HVAC in the United States is 33%. That is quite substantial. Many commercial office buildings, built or significantly renovated since the 1990s, have used a particular means of ventilation control called “Demand Controlled Ventilation” (DCV). DCV, in short, modulates the amount of ventilation (air exchanges with the outdoors) based on the levels of a proxy or representative contaminant, typically CO2, detected indoors. While this helps reduce energy cost, the 33% figure is derived from data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA in 2012 (EIA 2018). What this does for the problem, instead, is suggest a means of reducing energy expenditure by reducing the amount of air exchanges with the outdoors required. Should most or all contaminants be filtered out or removed by some means other than air exchange, indoor air can be recirculated for longer periods, effectively reducing the amount of energy spent on conditioning for comfort.

Indoor air contaminants mostly include small particles, microorganisms (bacteria, fungi, viruses), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Of these, only carbon dioxide is not filtered out through a HEPA and activated carbon filter stack. By adding some CCU/S method into this air purification stack, the ventilation demands of a central HVAC building may be significantly reduced.

The phenomenon of “brain fog” - an inability to concentrate, process, or recall - often occurs after people stay indoors for extended periods of time. A major contributor to this is elevated CO2 levels and poor air quality. (Shutterstock).

Cognitive Performance.
The issue of the deleterious effects CO2 has on cognitive performance is perhaps among the more interesting. Studies conducted by Harvard and the State University of New York’s (SUNY) Upstate Medical University have found that elevated levels of CO2 impair most measures of cognitive performance, including focus, strategic planning, and decision making. The negative effects of carbon dioxide on cognitive performance and productivity have been observed at concentrations of 1000ppm (parts per million), more than double the global atmospheric average of 415ppm. While this may seem like a significant increase, it is fairly common to find indoor environments with CO2 concentrations higher than 1,000ppm, and individuals tend to report discomfort and dissatisfaction with air quality at around 600ppm (Allen 2016). In fact, a 2012 study on air quality control from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) notes that “21% of Texas classrooms’ peak CO2 concentration exceeds 3,000 ppm” (Satish 2012).

The precise magnitude of impact on cognitive performance varies between studies, however the overall trend can be seen. Satish et al. reports a 400 ppm increase in CO2 levels correlating to a 21% decline in cognitive performance averaged across nine typically used measures of performance (Satish 2012). Allen et al. has found that a reduction of volatile organic compounds and CO2 concentrations, as well as an increase in ventilation, is correlated to a 61%-101% increase in cognitive performance scores over conventional conditions (Allen 2016). There are also demonstrations of the effects of ventilation on cognitive performance, MacNaughton et al. reports an 8% increase in decision making when doubling outdoor air ventilation rates from 20cfm (cubic feet per minute per person) to 40cfm (MacNaughton 2015). The latter study then elaborates on this figure, correlating the improved decision making with a $6,500 per year change in employee productivity, as well as reduced absenteeism and improved health.

This has clear appeal for the workplace, but may also strike a chord with the residential market for similar reasons. Parental concerns over cognitive and physical performance of their children has been a long-standing ripe market. There has also been a sharp increase in demand for personal nootropics, cognitive performance enhancers, over the past 5-10 years. Study-backed claims around improved focus, memory, information retention, strategic planning, and decision making may prove to be quite effective here.

The prolific use of masks highlights the raising concerns around air quality. This will be an issue property managers will have to address to attract tenants back to their expensive urban facilities. (Shutterstock).

Tenant Appeal

The synthesis of two previously mentioned themes - raising concern on sustainable options, and improved cognitive performance/productivity - indicate that the appeal of a building to a commercial or residential tenant can be influenced by how air is treated. With the COVID-19 pandemic a third relevant theme - concerns regarding airborne diseases - will influence not merely the demand for space in a building, but determine the speed at which companies and families return to multi-unit market. Optimistically, this will pose as a major challenge over the next several years. The combined health and economic trauma faced by individuals and companies alike will not be easy to pacify. Coupled with the worsening storms, forest fires, and record breaking heat we face on a regular basis due to climate change, the market for a comprehensive air filtration stack is likely as ripe now as ever.

Resource Ecology of Carbon.

Indoor farming in urban centers is a booming industry. This may serve as a strong synergistic market for urban CCU/S. (Square Roots).

Putting Carbon to Use.

If any of the above markets for CCU/S are successful, the issue of carbon use arises. Carbon Engineering and Climeworks are either using the carbon dioxide to create synthetic fuels, or are simply pumping it into the ground. This is a rather awkward treatment of an incredible element that is the core to life on Earth. We can certainly come up with some more sophisticated and graceful uses for this element through a more system-as-ecology perspective.

The United Nations’ World Health Organization projects an urban population of 7 billion by 2050. (Our World in Data).

Reintegration into the biological cycle may be a good place to start, as carbon is an essential element for life. Indoor agriculture often uses canisters of CO2 as an atmospheric supplement to promote faster growth, as plants prefer CO2 concentrations of roughly 1,200ppm (triple the current global average). The above analysis seems to highlight urban centers as a potential market for decentralized CCU/S. The World Health Organization has projected that the global population will grow to 10 billion by 2050, 70% of which will be living in urban centers. As our population is only now exceeding 7.7 billion, that puts nearly the entire current population on Earth living in cities in just 30 years. This poses a major logistical problem regarding infrastructure and food supply. The latter may be addressed through a synergistic alliance between the booming urban indoor farming industry, and urban CCU/S. Imagine seeing at Whole Foods: Local greens grown with locally-sourced Carbon.

Beyond atmospheric supplementation for agriculture, the paradigm of transferring carbon to biomass can include the use of photobioreactors to produce algae. Species of algae have a range of uses, including food, nutritional supplements, fertilizer when composted, and soil supplementation when converted to biochar. Biochar (essentially activated carbon) has been shown to improve the vitality of soil and reduce environmental impacts of agriculture, as it boosts moisture retention (less irrigation) and nutrient retention (less fertilizer). This can be used to improve the local ecology of natural and park spaces in and around urban centers, as many soil samples have indicated the need for.

While a preliminary exercise, the notion of resource ecology seems to point to some exciting prospects with potential for graceful use of essential elements. CCU/S can become an integrated part of urban living, if made into a desirable identity symbol with undeniable efficiency gains. The BioArchos project is founded on this premise, driven by the excitement of the potential to close resource loops into systems that resemble ecology.

References

1. Allen, J.G., et al. (2016). Associations of Cognitive Function Scores with Carbon Dioxide, Ventilation, and Volatile Organic Compound Exposures in Office Workers: A Controlled Exposure Study of Green and Conventional Office Environments. Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol 124, No 6.

2. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Use of energy in commercial buildings. (2018). Retrieved 6 June 2020, from https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/commercial-buildings.php

3. MacNaughton, et al. (2015). Economic, Environmental and Health Implications of Enhanced Ventilation in Office Buildings. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12, 14709-22.

4. Room, J. (2016). Exclusive: Elevated CO2 Levels Directly Affect Human Cognition, New Harvard Study Shows. Think Progress. Retrieved August 18, 2019 from https://thinkprogress.org/exclusive-elevated-co2-levels-directly-affect-human-cognition-new-harvard-study-shows-2748e7378941/amp/

5. Satish, U., et al. (2012). Is CO2 an Indoor Pollutant? Direct Effects of Low-to-Moderate CO2 Concentrations on Human Decision-Making Performance. Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol 120, No 12.